KUALA LUMPUR – Oil prices could rise to between US$90 and US$100 per barrel if the shutdown at Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura facility persists, analysts say.
The key Saudi plant was temporarily closed on Monday following a drone strike, amid heightened Middle East tensions after retaliatory attacks linked to US and Israeli strikes on Iran.
IPPFA Sdn Bhd director of investment strategy and country economist Mohd Sedek Jantan told Bernama that the pace of recovery will determine the market’s direction.
If operations resume within 24 to 48 hours, supply disruptions are likely to be minimal and prices could ease to around US$74 to US$76 per barrel.
However, a week-long outage could tighten supply and keep Brent trading in the US$80s, amid concerns over regional shipping routes.
Should the disruption stretch for several weeks, Brent could climb towards US$95 to US$100 as Saudi Arabia prioritises domestic demand and trims exports. An outage beyond a month could see prices spike to US$120 to US$140, raising the risk of a wider global energy crisis, he said.
Al-Madinah International University economist Professor Emeritus Dr Barjoyai Bardai said Ras Tanura is a major refinery and export hub processing about 550,000 barrels a day.
“Given its strategic role, even a short shutdown would trigger immediate concerns over export disruptions and raise fears over the safety of shipping in the Middle East,” he said.
He added that market sentiment will likely amplify price swings. “Even small incidents could trigger outsized price reactions as traders assume that if Ras Tanura can be hit, anything can be targeted,” he warned, noting that such fears alone could push Brent into the US$90 range even without major supply losses.— March 3, 2026