KUALA LUMPUR – The low turnout in recent by-elections among non-Malay voters, especially the Chinese, is unlikely to hurt Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) chances in general elections, said political observers.
Even though some observers have interpreted the low turnout – Chinese turnout was estimated at 47% and Indians was at 58% – in the recent Sg Bakap poll in Penang as a sign of protest, this is mostly because the outcome does not affect the federal administration.
“I think the Chinese and (other) non-Malays are really afraid of PAS’ Islamisation policies. So, they would not pull the same stunt in the general elections.
“I think they will come out and vote during general elections but not to the same extent as in the previous elections. But in any case, it does not make that much of a difference because most of the non-Malay votes go to DAP,” Prof James Chin of the University of Tasmania told Scoop.
He also said the non-Malays were merely sending a signal to the government to fix the economy and implement reforms.
Meanwhile, Lau Zhe Wei, an assistant political science professor at the International Islamic University of Malaysia, told Scoop that PH should not be worried about the prospect of losing the non-Malay vote since the communities, especially the Chinese, had no alternative party that represented their interests.
However, the analyst said the Chinese had made concessions – such as accepting PH working with Umno following the 2022 general election and toning down their demands for the recognition of the Unified Examination Certificate – as not to provide leverage to Perikatan Nasional (PN).
Despite that, he said PH should not take the vote for granted in the next general election.
Lau also said even with the low turnout among the non-Malays, it would not cost PH its Chinese-majority seats, as the percentage of the Chinese voters who sit out the polls would not supersede the percentage of those turning out to vote.
“For mixed seats, it remains safe when the Malay voters are less than 40% of the total count. However, a win in marginal seats where the Chinese comprise 30% or less is not guaranteed.”
Uphill task for Pakatan to woo Malay vote
Additionally, Chin suggested that PH focus less on wooing the conservative Muslims in future elections as they would still back the PAS-dominated PN.
There is no way they (the unity government) can be more conservative than PAS.”
To retain existing support, he said Putrajaya should instead be centrist and focus on strengthening the national economy to ensure Malaysians enjoyed better wages and employment. – July 14, 2024